ABC is gracing us with both the Democratic and Republican debates tonight from New Hampshire. I'm at the Freitai Estate watching on HD (which is actually a little frightening, most candidates are not meant to be seen in HD). There may be liveblogging to come, but I make no promises. Regardless, what to look for tonight.
Obama has to make the transition from insurgent to frontrunner, and continue the momentum. He has a tendency to disappoint in debates. Modern television debates focus on short, punchy moments. For all his many strengths, short and punchy is not one of them. Obama can meander during his answers, and often will answer questions that haven't been asked. Clinton and Edwards will both attack, the question is how and where. Clinton could go on experience, and her surrogates have been pointing out the more leftward postilions Obama has taken in the past. Edwards has tested out a fairly clunky “tool of the man” line over the past two days. We may see variations on that theme. The wild card is Bill Richardson. He has virtually no chance for the nomination now, and it's a question of who he thinks gives him the best chance for the VP slot. It seems that would be Obama. He could come out swinging against Hilary.
For the GOP, it will be as weirdly disconnected as it has been in the recent past. Like Obama, Mike Huckabee has to make the transition to frontrunner. Unlike Obama, he's basically flatlined in New Hampshire, and the state lacks a natural evangelical base for him. Due to continuing money problems, this will be his best shot to reach New Hampshire. No one is expecting anything from him in the Granite State, and any good showing will count as an expectations game win. New Hampshire is doubly important for Romney and McCain. Both are aiming for the anti-Huckabee faction, and the loser of this primary is dead on arrival. The debate between the two of them will be negative, ugly and oftentimes preposterous. As for Guiliani, he needs a big moment to find some traction after a difficult month. The debate will almost certainly turn on immigration and terrorism, and will almost certainly be negative. Really negative.
Really negative.
Have I mentioned negative?
Saturday, January 5, 2008
The Natural
With Obama's Iowa win and rising poll numbers, Barack has done what I had always thought was impossible. No, not win as a black man in a white state, nor defeat Hillary for the female vote. No, the miracle of the Barack Obama campaign is that they have created the image of a political candidate who isn't a complete douche bag.
Barack Obama may actually be . . . (pause for effect) . . . cool.
Politicians always seem to reek of ambition. They have a reputation as being self serving and arrogant. On the ladder of public loathing, politicians are barely a step up from America's least favorite professionals, lawyers. Listening to a political candidate speak is about as pleasant as listening to a David Hasselhoff Christmas album on repeat. John Kerry sounded like a reanimated corpse, and Al Gore, before he found religion (mother earth), was stiffer and more robotic than Optimus Prime, without the ability to transform into a semi-truck. John Edwards can charm the wallpaper off of a Carolina living room, but his folksy routine doesn't work on television; it comes off hollow and tends to irritate Northerners. Howard Dean had the opposite effect, he spoke of the South like they were an alien race and he had a forced smile that made people nervous, and had Iowans locking their doors at night. Mitt Romney has a tone of desperation, and even McCain, who once had honesty on his side now sounds old and weary. Listening to Hillary Clinton's oration is like being stabbed with spoon, it hurts so much and you wish it would just puncture the skin so you could feel something other than sheer discomfort. Then there was George Bush, who was a master at schmoozing with the common people, but when you put him in front of a microphone he had about as much confidence as an 8th grader with dental headgear giving a pep talk at the school homecoming rally.
So why doesn't Obama sound like a phony? How come he can say the same thing as the other candidates and seem authentic. How can a man run for the Presidency of the United States and somehow appear humble? What makes Obama the smoothest most natural politician in a generation. I'm not sure but I think it's his voice.
Barack Obama may actually be . . . (pause for effect) . . . cool.
Politicians always seem to reek of ambition. They have a reputation as being self serving and arrogant. On the ladder of public loathing, politicians are barely a step up from America's least favorite professionals, lawyers. Listening to a political candidate speak is about as pleasant as listening to a David Hasselhoff Christmas album on repeat. John Kerry sounded like a reanimated corpse, and Al Gore, before he found religion (mother earth), was stiffer and more robotic than Optimus Prime, without the ability to transform into a semi-truck. John Edwards can charm the wallpaper off of a Carolina living room, but his folksy routine doesn't work on television; it comes off hollow and tends to irritate Northerners. Howard Dean had the opposite effect, he spoke of the South like they were an alien race and he had a forced smile that made people nervous, and had Iowans locking their doors at night. Mitt Romney has a tone of desperation, and even McCain, who once had honesty on his side now sounds old and weary. Listening to Hillary Clinton's oration is like being stabbed with spoon, it hurts so much and you wish it would just puncture the skin so you could feel something other than sheer discomfort. Then there was George Bush, who was a master at schmoozing with the common people, but when you put him in front of a microphone he had about as much confidence as an 8th grader with dental headgear giving a pep talk at the school homecoming rally.
So why doesn't Obama sound like a phony? How come he can say the same thing as the other candidates and seem authentic. How can a man run for the Presidency of the United States and somehow appear humble? What makes Obama the smoothest most natural politician in a generation. I'm not sure but I think it's his voice.
Friday, January 4, 2008
Results - Democrats
Barack Obama – 38%
John Edwards – 30%
Hilary Clinton – 29%
Bill Richardson – 2%
Results – Republicans
Mike Huckabee – 34%
Mitt Romney – 25%
Fred Thompson – 13%
John McCain – 13%
Winners
1 – Mike Huckabee: He and Obama's winning margins were just about even, but the Huck won this after being outspent about 10 – 1. Huckabee did a very nice pivot with his speech tonight, focusing on economic issues, mentioning Jesus only once and generally positioning himself for South Carolina. He needs to ride this bounce, pick up money and build a quick ground game in SC and the February 5 states. New Hampshire will be difficult for the Huck, but he should get at least some name improvement after this very impressive win.
2 - Barack Obama: While this is nowhere near the a killing blow, Obama did serious damage to Hilary Clinton and showed he can focus his rock-star status into real results. The vaunted youth vote, proclaimed a big deal in every election since 1972, actually showed up in Iowa. Add his gorgeous acceptance speech, his ability to grow the party, and he looks like the new frontrunner.
3 - John Edwards: While he should have won this thing with the sheer amounts of time and effort spent in Iowa, his second-place finish gives him reason to continue his campaign. Edwards' palpable anger resonates with the Democratic base, especially the netroots. It will be interesting to see how much and how often he attacks Obama. He was effective in attacking Clinton, and could do damage.
4 – The Democratic Party: The turnout for Iowa was an astonishing 239,000. In 2004, turnout was 125,00. The Republicans managed 120,00 this year. And don't listen to those who claim that this was a turnout based on independents and Republicans, according to exit polls, 76% of Democratic caucus-goers identified as Democrats. In 2004 that number was 79%. This is just a larger, more energized party than it was before. Iowa is a nominal red state, won by George W. Bush in 2004.
5 - The Democratic Party: No, this is not a misprint. According to entrance polls, the Democrats have
successfully positioned themselves as the mainstream, centrist party. From Andrew Sullivan:
The “Very Conservative” and “Very Liberal” numbers are striking. The GOP has painted itself as a borderline-extremist party, the Dems have done the opposite, and have done so running to the left of 2000 and 2004. Sully blames Rove and Bush for this, and I think he's right.
6 – Outsiders: Obama and Huckabee are not really supported by the mainstream machinery of their respective parties. For Obama, the Clintons still have a hold on the party. For Huckabee, large swathes of the GOP (basically anybody not an evangelical) actively loathes him. This is a good thing for American politics.
Losers
1 – Mitt Romney: Ouch... this has to hurt. Romney spent massive amounts of money (approximately $100 million total) and ended up getting whipped by a guy who was, let's face it, a nobody until about two weeks ago. The Mittronic 2000 has to win New Hampshire now, or he's toast.
2 – Hilary Clinton: Ooops... Clinton's campaign featured the ugly scent of entitlement, and that has to disappear if she expects to get anywhere. About 48 hours prior to the caucus it become obvious that things weren't going her way, and her people began to furiously backspin away, with Tom Vilsack stating that a strong third would prove Hilary's candadicy. No, it didn't. As the Mrs. Frinklin stated during her concession, “She looks so pissed-off.” She did, and the aging luminaries around her looked shell-shocked. It was an awful, robotic speech too.
3 – The GOP: Okay, so turnout was less than half of that of the opposition. The winner is actively disliked by large portions of the party, the chosen candidate of the party insiders is in shambles, Fred Thompson could dropping out as soon as yesterday, and John McCain (another guy everybody in the party hates) is probably the best candidate in the general election left. Have fun kids!
4 – Chris Dodd and Joe Biden: Well, we hardly knew them did we? Dodd and Biden, both northeastern liberals with sterling resumes, never get an inch of traction and sunk beneath the waves. Yeah, I know I mixed metaphors. Both will be considered for cabinet posts in a possible Democratic administration, and it will be interesting to see who, if anybody, either man endorses. Biden in particular, would make an excellent VP candidate for Obama.
5 – Tom Vilsack: Speaking of VP possibles.. the likable former governor of Iowa ended his own presidential campaign before it started and became one of Hilary's most active surrogates. It didn't take a genius to realize that Vilsack was angling for Hilary's VP slot. Well, getting your candidate waxed in your home state really doesn't help that, now does it?
6 – Rudy Giuliani: Mr. 9/11 finished sixth. I know he pulled out and is concentrating on the February 5th states, but c'mon. Sixth?
What Comes Next?
Obama makes the transition from insurgent to frontrunner, and he will be the story for the next 48 – 72 hours. His story is just too damn good to pass up. Clinton will have to go negative, which is far more acceptable in New Hampshire then in Iowa, and Edwards will hope to edge into second to keep his candidacy alive. The last man standing amongst the Democratic second-tier is Bill Richardson, who may have made a deal with Obama in Iowa, and again could be angling for VP or cabinet post. This has to scare Clinton a bit, he could do serious damage in the debate.
For the GOP, this is now a single elimination tournament for McCain and Romney. One of these two will win New Hampshire and become the anti-Huck. The other goes home with no parting gifts. Huckabee has show something in New Hampshire, and move forward to Michigan and South Carolina, two places where his populist economic message (Michigan) and his Pro-Jesusness (SC) will serve him well. He's still got a ways to go to become a national candidate, but the deck is clearing a bit. Rudy is... well hell, Rudy's dead and he just doesn't know it yet.
Barack Obama – 38%
John Edwards – 30%
Hilary Clinton – 29%
Bill Richardson – 2%
Results – Republicans
Mike Huckabee – 34%
Mitt Romney – 25%
Fred Thompson – 13%
John McCain – 13%
Winners
1 – Mike Huckabee: He and Obama's winning margins were just about even, but the Huck won this after being outspent about 10 – 1. Huckabee did a very nice pivot with his speech tonight, focusing on economic issues, mentioning Jesus only once and generally positioning himself for South Carolina. He needs to ride this bounce, pick up money and build a quick ground game in SC and the February 5 states. New Hampshire will be difficult for the Huck, but he should get at least some name improvement after this very impressive win.
2 - Barack Obama: While this is nowhere near the a killing blow, Obama did serious damage to Hilary Clinton and showed he can focus his rock-star status into real results. The vaunted youth vote, proclaimed a big deal in every election since 1972, actually showed up in Iowa. Add his gorgeous acceptance speech, his ability to grow the party, and he looks like the new frontrunner.
3 - John Edwards: While he should have won this thing with the sheer amounts of time and effort spent in Iowa, his second-place finish gives him reason to continue his campaign. Edwards' palpable anger resonates with the Democratic base, especially the netroots. It will be interesting to see how much and how often he attacks Obama. He was effective in attacking Clinton, and could do damage.
4 – The Democratic Party: The turnout for Iowa was an astonishing 239,000. In 2004, turnout was 125,00. The Republicans managed 120,00 this year. And don't listen to those who claim that this was a turnout based on independents and Republicans, according to exit polls, 76% of Democratic caucus-goers identified as Democrats. In 2004 that number was 79%. This is just a larger, more energized party than it was before. Iowa is a nominal red state, won by George W. Bush in 2004.
5 - The Democratic Party: No, this is not a misprint. According to entrance polls, the Democrats have
successfully positioned themselves as the mainstream, centrist party. From Andrew Sullivan:
Now look at how the caucus-goers defined themselves in the entrance polls. Among the Dems: Very Liberal: 18 percent; Somewhat Liberal: 36 percent; Moderate: 40 percent; Conservative: 6 percent. Now check out the Republicans: Very Conservative: 45 percent; Somewhat Conservative: 43 percent; Moderate: 11 percent; Liberal: 1 percent.
The “Very Conservative” and “Very Liberal” numbers are striking. The GOP has painted itself as a borderline-extremist party, the Dems have done the opposite, and have done so running to the left of 2000 and 2004. Sully blames Rove and Bush for this, and I think he's right.
6 – Outsiders: Obama and Huckabee are not really supported by the mainstream machinery of their respective parties. For Obama, the Clintons still have a hold on the party. For Huckabee, large swathes of the GOP (basically anybody not an evangelical) actively loathes him. This is a good thing for American politics.
Losers
1 – Mitt Romney: Ouch... this has to hurt. Romney spent massive amounts of money (approximately $100 million total) and ended up getting whipped by a guy who was, let's face it, a nobody until about two weeks ago. The Mittronic 2000 has to win New Hampshire now, or he's toast.
2 – Hilary Clinton: Ooops... Clinton's campaign featured the ugly scent of entitlement, and that has to disappear if she expects to get anywhere. About 48 hours prior to the caucus it become obvious that things weren't going her way, and her people began to furiously backspin away, with Tom Vilsack stating that a strong third would prove Hilary's candadicy. No, it didn't. As the Mrs. Frinklin stated during her concession, “She looks so pissed-off.” She did, and the aging luminaries around her looked shell-shocked. It was an awful, robotic speech too.
3 – The GOP: Okay, so turnout was less than half of that of the opposition. The winner is actively disliked by large portions of the party, the chosen candidate of the party insiders is in shambles, Fred Thompson could dropping out as soon as yesterday, and John McCain (another guy everybody in the party hates) is probably the best candidate in the general election left. Have fun kids!
4 – Chris Dodd and Joe Biden: Well, we hardly knew them did we? Dodd and Biden, both northeastern liberals with sterling resumes, never get an inch of traction and sunk beneath the waves. Yeah, I know I mixed metaphors. Both will be considered for cabinet posts in a possible Democratic administration, and it will be interesting to see who, if anybody, either man endorses. Biden in particular, would make an excellent VP candidate for Obama.
5 – Tom Vilsack: Speaking of VP possibles.. the likable former governor of Iowa ended his own presidential campaign before it started and became one of Hilary's most active surrogates. It didn't take a genius to realize that Vilsack was angling for Hilary's VP slot. Well, getting your candidate waxed in your home state really doesn't help that, now does it?
6 – Rudy Giuliani: Mr. 9/11 finished sixth. I know he pulled out and is concentrating on the February 5th states, but c'mon. Sixth?
What Comes Next?
Obama makes the transition from insurgent to frontrunner, and he will be the story for the next 48 – 72 hours. His story is just too damn good to pass up. Clinton will have to go negative, which is far more acceptable in New Hampshire then in Iowa, and Edwards will hope to edge into second to keep his candidacy alive. The last man standing amongst the Democratic second-tier is Bill Richardson, who may have made a deal with Obama in Iowa, and again could be angling for VP or cabinet post. This has to scare Clinton a bit, he could do serious damage in the debate.
For the GOP, this is now a single elimination tournament for McCain and Romney. One of these two will win New Hampshire and become the anti-Huck. The other goes home with no parting gifts. Huckabee has show something in New Hampshire, and move forward to Michigan and South Carolina, two places where his populist economic message (Michigan) and his Pro-Jesusness (SC) will serve him well. He's still got a ways to go to become a national candidate, but the deck is clearing a bit. Rudy is... well hell, Rudy's dead and he just doesn't know it yet.
Thursday, January 3, 2008
OBAMA/HUCKABEE
Dateline: Dave Swidler's Basement!!
I'm blogging live in the middle of the caucus counting. No I'm not drunk, yet.
Well I'm eating crow with a delicious Mediterrean salad. Barack Hussein Obama is the projected winner of Iowa. Huckabee has won in Iowa as well.
Personally I'm backing Obama, so I'm delighted. I want Huckabee to win the GOP nomination, because it exposes the ridiculous dichotomy of the Republican base. It's amazing how the press has already written off Hillary, claiming that Super Tuesday may be her last stand.Uh, 200,000 farmers have had their voice heard.
Also, I'm gay.
Thanks, that was Dave Swidler, filling in for me as I made myself a delicious Kenyan Hawaiian style Kabob with a delicious Iraqi sauce to celebrate Obama's victory.
So the media is currently anointing Obama as the nominee. Which we all know is extremely premature. However they could be right. Every primary season we see the nominee is usually picked in the first few primaries. Why does the voting population get behind the one who wins early. Is it because they are sheep, and will blindly follow whoever looks like the early winner. Or does the media, once they've picked a favorite, make voters feel like losers for not getting behind the "obvious" front runner.
We're watching Edwards deliver his concession speech and everyone in this room hates this guy. Honestly I like how he speaks more frankly and specifically about issues than his competitors. Hillary and Barack often speak in giant sweeping generalizations "Are you ready to Change America!"
The corporate greed monster is going to bury you Edwards, thanks for trying though.
I'm blogging live in the middle of the caucus counting. No I'm not drunk, yet.
Well I'm eating crow with a delicious Mediterrean salad. Barack Hussein Obama is the projected winner of Iowa. Huckabee has won in Iowa as well.
Personally I'm backing Obama, so I'm delighted. I want Huckabee to win the GOP nomination, because it exposes the ridiculous dichotomy of the Republican base. It's amazing how the press has already written off Hillary, claiming that Super Tuesday may be her last stand.Uh, 200,000 farmers have had their voice heard.
Also, I'm gay.
Thanks, that was Dave Swidler, filling in for me as I made myself a delicious Kenyan Hawaiian style Kabob with a delicious Iraqi sauce to celebrate Obama's victory.
So the media is currently anointing Obama as the nominee. Which we all know is extremely premature. However they could be right. Every primary season we see the nominee is usually picked in the first few primaries. Why does the voting population get behind the one who wins early. Is it because they are sheep, and will blindly follow whoever looks like the early winner. Or does the media, once they've picked a favorite, make voters feel like losers for not getting behind the "obvious" front runner.
We're watching Edwards deliver his concession speech and everyone in this room hates this guy. Honestly I like how he speaks more frankly and specifically about issues than his competitors. Hillary and Barack often speak in giant sweeping generalizations "Are you ready to Change America!"
The corporate greed monster is going to bury you Edwards, thanks for trying though.
The Raucous Caucus
Okay, since my blogpartner has done the same, I'll give you some completely uniformed predictions about Iowa. The standard caveats apply. I have no idea what I'm talking about. Nobody else does in Iowa either.
Democrats
I've been pretty confident about calling this for Edwards, but I'm not so sure all of the sudden. The wind seems to have changed a bit and Obama seems to be closing strong. Or maybe he isn't, and Clinton is closing strong. Or maybe Edwards really IS going to take it. It's a crapshoot, and has been for months now. Edwards is the safest bet here, despite his lower national profile. He's basically lived in Iowa the past four years, made huge inroads with the traditional Dem power bases like the unions. The issue with John Edwards is what happens after Iowa. While he's more popular in New Hampshire then four years ago, he still lacks the money and base that his rivals have built. Clinton started with the most name recognition and is still the national frontrunner, but her Iowa machine has struggled. She counts former Governor Tom Vilsack amongst her most vociferous supporters (Tom is practically begging for the VP slot, lets be honest), and she has impressive supports amongst down strata dems, particularly non-college educated women. Obama is the only one here with any real transformative power. If the Des Moines Registrar is correct, and we see an influx of new voters, they will break for Obama. This is a risky strategy though; Iowa is very traditional and the caucus is difficult to break into. This nearly killed Howard Dean in 2004. Obama seems to be doing it the correct way though, focusing on Iowans, disregarding Dean's legions of outsiders. Obama is also helped by strength with “second-choicers”. Dennis Kucinich has already requested that his followers back Obama if he falls below the necessary 15% (and he will), and there are rumors that Biden and Richardson might do the same. Neither man has any particular love for Obama, but both have a better shot at the VP or Secretary of State jobs in an Obama administration than they do a Clinton Redux.
Predictions
1-Obama – 27%
2-Edwards – 24%
3-Clinton – 23%
4-Chris Dodd – 16%
This would be a huge win for Obama, a disappointment for Edwards and a manageable-but-difficult loss for Clinton. The issue with Hilary Clinton is her chilly relations with the press. The MSM might be all to happy to pile on Clinton, and call this a much bigger loss than it actually is. I think Dodd is the most likely lower-tier candidate to break through. He's earned much cred with the base for his fight against the Telecom bill.
Republicans
After soaring into the frontrunner spot, Mike Huckabee has, well, revealed himself to be... a bit of a moron. He's easily the nicest, most friendly Republican around, but damn... I would like a president who has a clue about where Pakistan is. Plus, this goofy “I'm going negative! No I'm not!” hat dance of the past week has damaged his standing with non-evangelical Republicans. There has been a turn away from the Huck the past couple days. Unfortunately for his main rival Mitt Romney, they haven't been turning to him. The Mitt, despite pouring vast amounts of money and time into Iowa, is still stuck in a duel with Huckabee, who's evangelical base won't go anywhere. There has been a surge toward John McCain, despite his spending minimal effort in Iowa. Throw in the expected end of Fred Thompson's campaign, and you have a bit of a mess.
Predictions
1-Huckabee – 29%
2-Romney – 24%
3-McCain – 18%
4-Ron Paul – 10%
The problem with Mike Huckabee is that he's basically a one-note candidate. He's had difficulty pushing past his evangelical base, and he lacks the money and structure to expand his support. Win Iowa, lose Iowa, this is his peak. And yes, I'm well aware this statement is now guaranteed to bite me in the ass. Romney – the most patently insincere man ever considered by either party – is in trouble with a second in Iowa. The massive amount of resources expended will give the press something to harp on, and not a good something for Mitt. The winner in this scenario is McCain, who scores a solid third without much work involved. Couple this with a surge in New Hampshire and he might become the frontrunner again.
Democrats
I've been pretty confident about calling this for Edwards, but I'm not so sure all of the sudden. The wind seems to have changed a bit and Obama seems to be closing strong. Or maybe he isn't, and Clinton is closing strong. Or maybe Edwards really IS going to take it. It's a crapshoot, and has been for months now. Edwards is the safest bet here, despite his lower national profile. He's basically lived in Iowa the past four years, made huge inroads with the traditional Dem power bases like the unions. The issue with John Edwards is what happens after Iowa. While he's more popular in New Hampshire then four years ago, he still lacks the money and base that his rivals have built. Clinton started with the most name recognition and is still the national frontrunner, but her Iowa machine has struggled. She counts former Governor Tom Vilsack amongst her most vociferous supporters (Tom is practically begging for the VP slot, lets be honest), and she has impressive supports amongst down strata dems, particularly non-college educated women. Obama is the only one here with any real transformative power. If the Des Moines Registrar is correct, and we see an influx of new voters, they will break for Obama. This is a risky strategy though; Iowa is very traditional and the caucus is difficult to break into. This nearly killed Howard Dean in 2004. Obama seems to be doing it the correct way though, focusing on Iowans, disregarding Dean's legions of outsiders. Obama is also helped by strength with “second-choicers”. Dennis Kucinich has already requested that his followers back Obama if he falls below the necessary 15% (and he will), and there are rumors that Biden and Richardson might do the same. Neither man has any particular love for Obama, but both have a better shot at the VP or Secretary of State jobs in an Obama administration than they do a Clinton Redux.
Predictions
1-Obama – 27%
2-Edwards – 24%
3-Clinton – 23%
4-Chris Dodd – 16%
This would be a huge win for Obama, a disappointment for Edwards and a manageable-but-difficult loss for Clinton. The issue with Hilary Clinton is her chilly relations with the press. The MSM might be all to happy to pile on Clinton, and call this a much bigger loss than it actually is. I think Dodd is the most likely lower-tier candidate to break through. He's earned much cred with the base for his fight against the Telecom bill.
Republicans
After soaring into the frontrunner spot, Mike Huckabee has, well, revealed himself to be... a bit of a moron. He's easily the nicest, most friendly Republican around, but damn... I would like a president who has a clue about where Pakistan is. Plus, this goofy “I'm going negative! No I'm not!” hat dance of the past week has damaged his standing with non-evangelical Republicans. There has been a turn away from the Huck the past couple days. Unfortunately for his main rival Mitt Romney, they haven't been turning to him. The Mitt, despite pouring vast amounts of money and time into Iowa, is still stuck in a duel with Huckabee, who's evangelical base won't go anywhere. There has been a surge toward John McCain, despite his spending minimal effort in Iowa. Throw in the expected end of Fred Thompson's campaign, and you have a bit of a mess.
Predictions
1-Huckabee – 29%
2-Romney – 24%
3-McCain – 18%
4-Ron Paul – 10%
The problem with Mike Huckabee is that he's basically a one-note candidate. He's had difficulty pushing past his evangelical base, and he lacks the money and structure to expand his support. Win Iowa, lose Iowa, this is his peak. And yes, I'm well aware this statement is now guaranteed to bite me in the ass. Romney – the most patently insincere man ever considered by either party – is in trouble with a second in Iowa. The massive amount of resources expended will give the press something to harp on, and not a good something for Mitt. The winner in this scenario is McCain, who scores a solid third without much work involved. Couple this with a surge in New Hampshire and he might become the frontrunner again.
Wednesday, January 2, 2008
Oh yeah, about tomorrow
The Iowa caucus is tomorrow, kicking off the 2008 campaign in fine, completely non-democratic style. For those unaware, this is nothing like a primary, where you vote in private, by secret ballot and everyone's ballot counts the same. In a caucus, your required to spend up to several hours arguing your point, moving into designated parts of the room to show your support, and if your candidate falls under 15% in your district, you have to choose someone else. James Kirchick on this lunacy:
For an amazing, in-depth instructional check out all eight parts of this series by MyDD blogger desmoinesdem.
Yes, the fact that it takes eight parts is all you really need to know about the Iowa caucus
Of course the secret ballot -- fundamental to any democratic process -- is absent in the caucus, replaced by a bizarre, Midwestern public shaming ritual straight out of a Garrison Keillor novel, pretty much all that's needed to render the Iowa primary illegitimate
For an amazing, in-depth instructional check out all eight parts of this series by MyDD blogger desmoinesdem.
Yes, the fact that it takes eight parts is all you really need to know about the Iowa caucus
Tuesday, January 1, 2008
IOWA PREDICTIONS
Dems:
The winner in Iowa will be John Edwards by the slimmest of margins. I love to make sweeping generalizations about geographical areas, and the primaries are the perfect time to indulge my preconceived notions about midwesterners. The practicality that had Iowa dump Howard Dean in 2004 for being too prickly and Vermontish, will have them dumping Barack and Hillary for being too black and too female respectively. It's not that the good people of Iowa don't want to vote for a black man or a woman, they're just practical. Like me they share a prejudice against different parts of the country. They want a democratic nominee that can win it all, and they don't trust the South when it comes to Obama, and they don't expect anyone between the Mississippi river and California to vote for Hillary. I can't imagine a world where Hillary carries Nevada, and neither can the Buckeye state.
GOP:
Huckabee will win Iowa. The Evangelicals are determined to hold onto the power they've wielded for so long and they've proven themselves to be one of the most dedicated voting blocks in the country. Romney's an appealing candidate to many Republicans, but he won't be able to bring people in droves to town hall on a cold January evening the way Jesus can. The thing I'm waiting to see is if Ron Paul shows up on the radar screen at all.
I fully expect to be eating crow next week, but by then it'll be time for a new round of completely inaccurate and underinformed predictions.
The winner in Iowa will be John Edwards by the slimmest of margins. I love to make sweeping generalizations about geographical areas, and the primaries are the perfect time to indulge my preconceived notions about midwesterners. The practicality that had Iowa dump Howard Dean in 2004 for being too prickly and Vermontish, will have them dumping Barack and Hillary for being too black and too female respectively. It's not that the good people of Iowa don't want to vote for a black man or a woman, they're just practical. Like me they share a prejudice against different parts of the country. They want a democratic nominee that can win it all, and they don't trust the South when it comes to Obama, and they don't expect anyone between the Mississippi river and California to vote for Hillary. I can't imagine a world where Hillary carries Nevada, and neither can the Buckeye state.
GOP:
Huckabee will win Iowa. The Evangelicals are determined to hold onto the power they've wielded for so long and they've proven themselves to be one of the most dedicated voting blocks in the country. Romney's an appealing candidate to many Republicans, but he won't be able to bring people in droves to town hall on a cold January evening the way Jesus can. The thing I'm waiting to see is if Ron Paul shows up on the radar screen at all.
I fully expect to be eating crow next week, but by then it'll be time for a new round of completely inaccurate and underinformed predictions.
Sunday, December 30, 2007
Republican Candidates Part 1: The Hopeless
For both parties, the the candidates for 2008 break down the same way. We have the Hopeless, the Very Little Hope, the Maybes, and the Probablys. The Republican Hopeless field is very thin, as Representative Tom Tancredo (R-Hateful White Guys), Senator Sam Brownback (R-Jesus) and former Governor Tommy Thompson (R-Can't Remember) all dropped out before any actual votes were cast.
Who: Representative Duncan Hunter (R-California)
First elected as part of the 1980 Reagan Revolution, Duncan Hunter has served 13 fairly uncontested terms representing three different districts based in San Diego county. He currently serves as Chairman of the House Armed Services Committee. As part of his run for president, Hunter has announced he will not seek reelection to Congress. His son, Duncan D. Hunter has announced his candidacy to replace his father despite being an active duty Marine serving in Afghanistan.
Chances In Iowa: They would seem to be in the purely theoretical area right now, as Hunter routinely polls between 1% - 3% in national polls, and is routinely left off Iowa polls. He has been mentioned (primarily by fellow candidate Mike Huckabee) as a possible future Secretary of Defense. We've done worse
Who: Representative Duncan Hunter (R-California)
First elected as part of the 1980 Reagan Revolution, Duncan Hunter has served 13 fairly uncontested terms representing three different districts based in San Diego county. He currently serves as Chairman of the House Armed Services Committee. As part of his run for president, Hunter has announced he will not seek reelection to Congress. His son, Duncan D. Hunter has announced his candidacy to replace his father despite being an active duty Marine serving in Afghanistan.
Chances In Iowa: They would seem to be in the purely theoretical area right now, as Hunter routinely polls between 1% - 3% in national polls, and is routinely left off Iowa polls. He has been mentioned (primarily by fellow candidate Mike Huckabee) as a possible future Secretary of Defense. We've done worse
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