The Dems of Michigan have a bit of a quandry on their hands. Their delegates have been sent to the penalty box for moving up their primary (that's what ya get for trying to have your voices heard). Will they be released in time to be counted at the convention, and who will they vote for, if you're formerly not allowed to vote for Obama or Edwards since they're not on the ballot. If it really does come down to a tight delegate count this summer, the DNC may have an internal-Florida/Ohio situation on their hands.
WASHINGTON (CNN) Democratic leaders in Michigan are urging supporters of John Edwards and Barack Obama, who are not on the ballot in the state, to vote "uncommitted" in the January 15 primary a move that could create an unexpected headache for Hillary Clinton campaign.
Clinton is the only major presidential candidate who did not pull her name from the Michigan ballot after the national party penalized the state for scheduling the vote in mid-January, rather than later in the cycle.
The national party voted to strip Michigan of delegates as a penalty, but party leaders in the electoral-vote rich state have expressed confidence that they will be seated at the convention.
None of the candidates, including Clinton, will be campaigning here, and none have authorized write-in campaigns which means that, under state law, their supporters cannot cast write-in votes for any of them.
But if at least 15 percent of the voters in a congressional district opt for the "uncommitted" option rather than voting for Clinton, delegates not bound to any candidate could attend the national convention, a development that could allow Edwards or Obama supporters to play a role in candidate selection there.
A new group, Detroiters for Uncommitted Voters, is launching a grassroots campaign to promote the "uncommitted" option. The Detroit News reported Thursday that Democratic Rep. John Conyers and his wife, Detroit City Councilwoman Monica Conyers, said they will launch ads calling for "uncommitted" votes if there is no other way to register support for Barack Obama.
CNN Associate Political Editor Rebecca Sinderbrand
Thursday, January 10, 2008
Tuesday, January 8, 2008
New Hampshire Running Totals
New Hampshire! Voting! Crack for Political Junkies!
The polls in New Hampshire have been closed for about 90 minutes, and we already have one winner for sure, and another probable.
John McCain won the Republican side in a convincing manner. With 43% of the vote total, he's up 38% to 30%. The Democrats are considered too close to call, with Clinton up 39% to Obama's 37%. Obama has been trending strong, but regardless, this is a victory for Hilary's campaign. Expect to hear the Comeback Kid meme non-stop for the next week.
The polls in New Hampshire have been closed for about 90 minutes, and we already have one winner for sure, and another probable.
John McCain won the Republican side in a convincing manner. With 43% of the vote total, he's up 38% to 30%. The Democrats are considered too close to call, with Clinton up 39% to Obama's 37%. Obama has been trending strong, but regardless, this is a victory for Hilary's campaign. Expect to hear the Comeback Kid meme non-stop for the next week.
Look! Real Voting!
After the rather convoluted Iowa caucuses, New Hampshire is pretty easy. Voting like we're used to, with independents allowed to vote in either primary. The questions on Tuesday are many: How much of a bounce do Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee get. Can Hilary Clinton and Mitt Romney recover? Is the John McCain of 2000 back? Do Guiliani and Thompson have pulses?
Democrats
Before the Iowa caucuses, Obama was rising, Clinton was holding serve and Edwards holding on. Since Obama's very impressive win, he has been rising and now leads the state from anywhere from 5 – 12 points. Now, this becomes question of how big his victory is. After holding a solid lead for a year, Clinton now find herself the underdog. A victory is probably out of reach, but a close second could set her up with a slight bounce heading to South Carolina and beyond to February 5th. Obama, conversely, now find himself hampered by expectations. A convincing win continues his wave, sets him up well in South Carolina and puts unbelievable pressure on both his rivals. John Edwards has settled into a solid third. While he lacks many chances for a breakthrough, his base of support is solid enough to see him though February.
Predictions
1 – Obama – 36%
2 – Clinton – 28%
3 – Edwards – 19%
Republicans
John McCain won this primary in 2000 in rather spectacular fashion. Romney has been in the lead for several months, but just prior to his Iowa implosion, the former Massachusetts governor was slipping in New Hampshire as well. Now, weirdly enough, Mitt has regrouped somewhat over the past 48 hours and might even slip past McCain. Romney still isn't beloved by anybody, but McCain rode independents to victory in 2000. Those votes seem to be flocking to Barack Obama this cycle. McCain still has a testy relationship with Republican regulars, so a lack of independents could seriously hamper him. I still think that McCain will take this one, but a close second for Romney keeps him alive through the beginning of February. Mike Huckabee has very little presence here, but a double-digit showing counts as a bit of a victory. He is the overwhelming favorite in South Carolina, so a victory there sets him up as the GOP frontrunner. The anti-Huckabee vote then settles between McCain and Romney, with Thompson and Giuliani on the verge of complete collapse.
Predictions
1 – McCain – 35%
2 – Romney - 32%
3 – Huckabee – 13%
4 – Paul – 9%
5 – Giuliani - 7%
Democrats
Before the Iowa caucuses, Obama was rising, Clinton was holding serve and Edwards holding on. Since Obama's very impressive win, he has been rising and now leads the state from anywhere from 5 – 12 points. Now, this becomes question of how big his victory is. After holding a solid lead for a year, Clinton now find herself the underdog. A victory is probably out of reach, but a close second could set her up with a slight bounce heading to South Carolina and beyond to February 5th. Obama, conversely, now find himself hampered by expectations. A convincing win continues his wave, sets him up well in South Carolina and puts unbelievable pressure on both his rivals. John Edwards has settled into a solid third. While he lacks many chances for a breakthrough, his base of support is solid enough to see him though February.
Predictions
1 – Obama – 36%
2 – Clinton – 28%
3 – Edwards – 19%
Republicans
John McCain won this primary in 2000 in rather spectacular fashion. Romney has been in the lead for several months, but just prior to his Iowa implosion, the former Massachusetts governor was slipping in New Hampshire as well. Now, weirdly enough, Mitt has regrouped somewhat over the past 48 hours and might even slip past McCain. Romney still isn't beloved by anybody, but McCain rode independents to victory in 2000. Those votes seem to be flocking to Barack Obama this cycle. McCain still has a testy relationship with Republican regulars, so a lack of independents could seriously hamper him. I still think that McCain will take this one, but a close second for Romney keeps him alive through the beginning of February. Mike Huckabee has very little presence here, but a double-digit showing counts as a bit of a victory. He is the overwhelming favorite in South Carolina, so a victory there sets him up as the GOP frontrunner. The anti-Huckabee vote then settles between McCain and Romney, with Thompson and Giuliani on the verge of complete collapse.
Predictions
1 – McCain – 35%
2 – Romney - 32%
3 – Huckabee – 13%
4 – Paul – 9%
5 – Giuliani - 7%
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