Wednesday, March 5, 2008

NNNNNNNOOOOOOOOOoooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo! NNNNNNNNNOOOOOOOOOooooooooooooo! No! Damn you Texas! You too Ohio! NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOooooooooooooooo! (deep breath) Nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo! no

Tuesday, March 4, 2008

Mini Super Tuesday Results

*The networks called Vermont for Obama right at the close of the polls. Early returns show Clinton with a lead in Ohio. Fifteen precincts in Cuyahoga county will be open until 9 local time due to inclement weather.

*Clinton seems to have the wind at her back right now, but look for Obama to blunt that later this week by releasing a presumably jaw-dropping fundraising numbers for February and up to 50 superdelegate pledges.

*Hey, this isn't totally sleazy, now is it? This is fun too.

*No matter what happens tonight, we're stuck with this until Pennsylvania.

*The winner of tonight's Democratic contests? John McCain.

Monday, March 3, 2008

Mini-Super Tuesday Prediction

Wasn't this supposed to be over by now? With the front-loaded primary season, the nominations should have been settled by now. It worked with the GOP; John McCain is the nominee in all but name. For the Democrats, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama keep on keepin' on. Tomorrow, giant contests in Ohio and Texas, plus primaries in Rhode Island and Vermont. The conventional wisdom is that Clinton must win both big states in order to proceed, and that Obama winning one could cripple her campaign and winning both would kill it.

But, if you read the various polls, it's clear nobody has a freakin' clue what is happening in either state. The two smaller states are somewhat predictable: Obama has a healthy lead in Vermont, and Clinton holds a steady lead in Rhode Island. Clinton opened both Ohio and Texas with huge leads, and has seen them steadily dwindle. Texas is deadlocked, and Ohio is a mess. One poll shows Obama with a one point lead, another shows Clinton with a nine-point lead.

Our prediction? Obama wins Texas in a squeaker and Vermont handily. Clinton wins Ohio and Rhode Island comfortably. Due to the way the Democrats split delegates, Obama's lead stays pretty much the same. Clinton will feel serious pressure to drop out, but won't until after the Pennsylvania primary in April.