Why we're in this mess.

Hillary can't run a coherent campaign. She should have won this thing, easily.

Her advisers warred over where to compete or what their message should be. She ignored warnings that she wouldn't do well in Iowa, she went ahead anyway, when she could've taken the McCain route and commanded the race. The divisions in her camp were reminiscent of the early days of Bush's presidency, where unqualified loyalists clashed with seasoned professionals and it was unclear who was setting the agenda.

Foolishly she believed that the nomination would be over by Super Tuesday, while Barack's campaign saw the impending delegate race and opened offices and began organizing in every post Super Tuesday state. She was demolished in February and tried to play it off as if they had no intention of winning in Virginia, Wisconsin, or Washington.

Then her campaign focused on the only states where it looked like she could win. Then when Barack began to close the gap in Texas, she pulled out the 3am ad, which is ridiculously shameless fear mongering. How can a woman who can't control her campaign, who can't control the statements her husband makes in the midst of a national campaign, who can't even steady her own emotions on camera be expected to run the United States of America?

Now she acts as if her recent losses don't mean anything, when she is still far behind, and realistically can't catch up. Her only hope is that she can shame Barack. Make the unflappable young hero of disheartened liberals and disenchanted moderates, lose his cool.

So she'll continue to attack him, make him look bad. Make him appear self important and tacky. She is dividing the democratic base and that could cost the party dearly in November. She doesn't realize that she's beat, and she is going to take this battle all the way to convention, hoping her loyalty among superdelegates help her carry the day.

Of course she claim she has a mandate when she wins in Pennsylvania. She'll claim Barack is unelectable. When Barack wins the nomination, she may just be right he may not be electable anymore, thanks to the damage she's done by running such a poor campaign.

NNNNNNNOOOOOOOOOoooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo! NNNNNNNNNOOOOOOOOOooooooooooooo! No! Damn you Texas! You too Ohio! NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOooooooooooooooo! (deep breath) Nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo! no

Mini Super Tuesday Results

*The networks called Vermont for Obama right at the close of the polls. Early returns show Clinton with a lead in Ohio. Fifteen precincts in Cuyahoga county will be open until 9 local time due to inclement weather.

*Clinton seems to have the wind at her back right now, but look for Obama to blunt that later this week by releasing a presumably jaw-dropping fundraising numbers for February and up to 50 superdelegate pledges.

*Hey, this isn't totally sleazy, now is it? This is fun too.

*No matter what happens tonight, we're stuck with this until Pennsylvania.

*The winner of tonight's Democratic contests? John McCain.

Mini-Super Tuesday Prediction

Wasn't this supposed to be over by now? With the front-loaded primary season, the nominations should have been settled by now. It worked with the GOP; John McCain is the nominee in all but name. For the Democrats, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama keep on keepin' on. Tomorrow, giant contests in Ohio and Texas, plus primaries in Rhode Island and Vermont. The conventional wisdom is that Clinton must win both big states in order to proceed, and that Obama winning one could cripple her campaign and winning both would kill it.

But, if you read the various polls, it's clear nobody has a freakin' clue what is happening in either state. The two smaller states are somewhat predictable: Obama has a healthy lead in Vermont, and Clinton holds a steady lead in Rhode Island. Clinton opened both Ohio and Texas with huge leads, and has seen them steadily dwindle. Texas is deadlocked, and Ohio is a mess. One poll shows Obama with a one point lead, another shows Clinton with a nine-point lead.

Our prediction? Obama wins Texas in a squeaker and Vermont handily. Clinton wins Ohio and Rhode Island comfortably. Due to the way the Democrats split delegates, Obama's lead stays pretty much the same. Clinton will feel serious pressure to drop out, but won't until after the Pennsylvania primary in April.

No, THOSE are the bad guys!

President Bush thinks it's a bad idea to say hello to bad guys:

Sitting down at the table, having your picture taken with a tyrant such as Raul Castro, for example, lends the status of the office and the status of our country to him. He gains a lot from it by saying, look at me, I’m now recognized by the President of the United States.

This, of course, is in response to Barack Obama's continued statements that he would “never fear to negotiate” with anyone. Now, I'm not entirely convinced that Obama is correct on this. I would set down some pretty stringent conditions to meet with various dictators. My issue is what is the difference between the tyrant in Cuba and the tyrant in say... Saudi Arabia? This stark, black/white split between “with us” and “against us” doesn't serve us well, and it makes US foreign policy even more incoherent than usual.

The Saudis, Uzbekistan (they like to boil people alive) and Pakistan are the good guys. Iran and North Korea are the surviving members of the Axis of Evil. I dare you to figure it out.

The Unseen Issue

One out of every hundred adult Americans is in prison, according to a newly-released Pew Center report. The demographics are often horrifying. One out of every nine African-American males between the ages of 20-34 is incarcerated. While 1 out of every 355 women between the ages of 35-39 are in jail, for African-American women in that same age group the ratio is 1 out of every 100. Four states (Vermont, Oregon, Connecticut and Michigan) now spend more on prisons than they do on higher education. America leads the world in prison population, both by sheer numbers (2.3 million, compared to 1.5 million for the far more populous China) and per capita (750 per 100,000, compared to Russia and 628 per 100,000). America also ranks sixth in the number of executions per year, behind such luminaries as China, Iran, Pakistan, Iraq and Sudan. Judging from these numbers, you might think that America is in the grips of a terrifying crime wave.

Only, we aren't.

Over the past 20 years, when spending on prisons has increased from $11 billion per annum to the current $49 billion, the crime wave has stayed consistent. The issue is politically-motivated, “get tough on crime” initiatives like mandatory minimums and the bordering on-ridiculous War on Drugs. Now, faced with crushing budget shortfalls (California for instance, is $16 billion in the hole for 2008), states such as Kansas, Texas and Kentucky are taking clear-eyed looks at ways to decrease recidivism and lower incarceration rates. The Second Chance Act, currently in limbo in the Senate, is a small, but important step on the federal level.

Now, the question is what and how does this play in the election in November. Barack Obama and John McCain both fancy themselves as those who speak the hard truths. Will either of them talk about this one?

Fun With Double Standards, Part 1

The most publicized item from Tueday's Democratic debate? Tim Russert's gotcha moment about Louis Farrakhan for Barack Obama, his slightly nuanced answer and Hillary Clinton's oddball coda. In the end, Obama both “denounced and rejected” Farrakhan.

And this is for good reason, Farrakhan and his Nation of Islam is notoriously anti-Semetic and often lunatic.

Today, John McCain (St. John of Straight Talk, if you watch CNN or MSNBC too often) received and celebrated the endorsement of John Hagee, pastor of a 19,000 parishioner megachurch in San Antonio. He's also the head of Christians United for Israel, a somewhat mislabeled group that fully supports Israel only as long as it promises to begin the end-times. Now, we accept many definitions of “support” but usually draw the line at “convert or suffer eternal damnation”. How serious is this gentleman about triggering the Apocalypse? Try this on:

The United States must join Israel in a pre-emptive military strike against Iran to fulfill God’s plan for both Israel and the West… a biblically prophesied end-time confrontation with Iran, which will lead to the Rapture, Tribulation, and Second Coming of Christ

Huh, sounds like fun. Now, will Timmeh or The Completely Insane Chris Mathews mention this come the time for next debate.

Of course not.

More fun with religious nuts available: Here