New Hampshire! Voting! Crack for Political Junkies!
The polls in New Hampshire have been closed for about 90 minutes, and we already have one winner for sure, and another probable.
John McCain won the Republican side in a convincing manner. With 43% of the vote total, he's up 38% to 30%. The Democrats are considered too close to call, with Clinton up 39% to Obama's 37%. Obama has been trending strong, but regardless, this is a victory for Hilary's campaign. Expect to hear the Comeback Kid meme non-stop for the next week.
Showing posts with label Republicans. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Republicans. Show all posts
Tuesday, January 8, 2008
Look! Real Voting!
After the rather convoluted Iowa caucuses, New Hampshire is pretty easy. Voting like we're used to, with independents allowed to vote in either primary. The questions on Tuesday are many: How much of a bounce do Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee get. Can Hilary Clinton and Mitt Romney recover? Is the John McCain of 2000 back? Do Guiliani and Thompson have pulses?
Democrats
Before the Iowa caucuses, Obama was rising, Clinton was holding serve and Edwards holding on. Since Obama's very impressive win, he has been rising and now leads the state from anywhere from 5 – 12 points. Now, this becomes question of how big his victory is. After holding a solid lead for a year, Clinton now find herself the underdog. A victory is probably out of reach, but a close second could set her up with a slight bounce heading to South Carolina and beyond to February 5th. Obama, conversely, now find himself hampered by expectations. A convincing win continues his wave, sets him up well in South Carolina and puts unbelievable pressure on both his rivals. John Edwards has settled into a solid third. While he lacks many chances for a breakthrough, his base of support is solid enough to see him though February.
Predictions
1 – Obama – 36%
2 – Clinton – 28%
3 – Edwards – 19%
Republicans
John McCain won this primary in 2000 in rather spectacular fashion. Romney has been in the lead for several months, but just prior to his Iowa implosion, the former Massachusetts governor was slipping in New Hampshire as well. Now, weirdly enough, Mitt has regrouped somewhat over the past 48 hours and might even slip past McCain. Romney still isn't beloved by anybody, but McCain rode independents to victory in 2000. Those votes seem to be flocking to Barack Obama this cycle. McCain still has a testy relationship with Republican regulars, so a lack of independents could seriously hamper him. I still think that McCain will take this one, but a close second for Romney keeps him alive through the beginning of February. Mike Huckabee has very little presence here, but a double-digit showing counts as a bit of a victory. He is the overwhelming favorite in South Carolina, so a victory there sets him up as the GOP frontrunner. The anti-Huckabee vote then settles between McCain and Romney, with Thompson and Giuliani on the verge of complete collapse.
Predictions
1 – McCain – 35%
2 – Romney - 32%
3 – Huckabee – 13%
4 – Paul – 9%
5 – Giuliani - 7%
Democrats
Before the Iowa caucuses, Obama was rising, Clinton was holding serve and Edwards holding on. Since Obama's very impressive win, he has been rising and now leads the state from anywhere from 5 – 12 points. Now, this becomes question of how big his victory is. After holding a solid lead for a year, Clinton now find herself the underdog. A victory is probably out of reach, but a close second could set her up with a slight bounce heading to South Carolina and beyond to February 5th. Obama, conversely, now find himself hampered by expectations. A convincing win continues his wave, sets him up well in South Carolina and puts unbelievable pressure on both his rivals. John Edwards has settled into a solid third. While he lacks many chances for a breakthrough, his base of support is solid enough to see him though February.
Predictions
1 – Obama – 36%
2 – Clinton – 28%
3 – Edwards – 19%
Republicans
John McCain won this primary in 2000 in rather spectacular fashion. Romney has been in the lead for several months, but just prior to his Iowa implosion, the former Massachusetts governor was slipping in New Hampshire as well. Now, weirdly enough, Mitt has regrouped somewhat over the past 48 hours and might even slip past McCain. Romney still isn't beloved by anybody, but McCain rode independents to victory in 2000. Those votes seem to be flocking to Barack Obama this cycle. McCain still has a testy relationship with Republican regulars, so a lack of independents could seriously hamper him. I still think that McCain will take this one, but a close second for Romney keeps him alive through the beginning of February. Mike Huckabee has very little presence here, but a double-digit showing counts as a bit of a victory. He is the overwhelming favorite in South Carolina, so a victory there sets him up as the GOP frontrunner. The anti-Huckabee vote then settles between McCain and Romney, with Thompson and Giuliani on the verge of complete collapse.
Predictions
1 – McCain – 35%
2 – Romney - 32%
3 – Huckabee – 13%
4 – Paul – 9%
5 – Giuliani - 7%
Saturday, January 5, 2008
Double Debate Pregame Show
ABC is gracing us with both the Democratic and Republican debates tonight from New Hampshire. I'm at the Freitai Estate watching on HD (which is actually a little frightening, most candidates are not meant to be seen in HD). There may be liveblogging to come, but I make no promises. Regardless, what to look for tonight.
Obama has to make the transition from insurgent to frontrunner, and continue the momentum. He has a tendency to disappoint in debates. Modern television debates focus on short, punchy moments. For all his many strengths, short and punchy is not one of them. Obama can meander during his answers, and often will answer questions that haven't been asked. Clinton and Edwards will both attack, the question is how and where. Clinton could go on experience, and her surrogates have been pointing out the more leftward postilions Obama has taken in the past. Edwards has tested out a fairly clunky “tool of the man” line over the past two days. We may see variations on that theme. The wild card is Bill Richardson. He has virtually no chance for the nomination now, and it's a question of who he thinks gives him the best chance for the VP slot. It seems that would be Obama. He could come out swinging against Hilary.
For the GOP, it will be as weirdly disconnected as it has been in the recent past. Like Obama, Mike Huckabee has to make the transition to frontrunner. Unlike Obama, he's basically flatlined in New Hampshire, and the state lacks a natural evangelical base for him. Due to continuing money problems, this will be his best shot to reach New Hampshire. No one is expecting anything from him in the Granite State, and any good showing will count as an expectations game win. New Hampshire is doubly important for Romney and McCain. Both are aiming for the anti-Huckabee faction, and the loser of this primary is dead on arrival. The debate between the two of them will be negative, ugly and oftentimes preposterous. As for Guiliani, he needs a big moment to find some traction after a difficult month. The debate will almost certainly turn on immigration and terrorism, and will almost certainly be negative. Really negative.
Really negative.
Have I mentioned negative?
Obama has to make the transition from insurgent to frontrunner, and continue the momentum. He has a tendency to disappoint in debates. Modern television debates focus on short, punchy moments. For all his many strengths, short and punchy is not one of them. Obama can meander during his answers, and often will answer questions that haven't been asked. Clinton and Edwards will both attack, the question is how and where. Clinton could go on experience, and her surrogates have been pointing out the more leftward postilions Obama has taken in the past. Edwards has tested out a fairly clunky “tool of the man” line over the past two days. We may see variations on that theme. The wild card is Bill Richardson. He has virtually no chance for the nomination now, and it's a question of who he thinks gives him the best chance for the VP slot. It seems that would be Obama. He could come out swinging against Hilary.
For the GOP, it will be as weirdly disconnected as it has been in the recent past. Like Obama, Mike Huckabee has to make the transition to frontrunner. Unlike Obama, he's basically flatlined in New Hampshire, and the state lacks a natural evangelical base for him. Due to continuing money problems, this will be his best shot to reach New Hampshire. No one is expecting anything from him in the Granite State, and any good showing will count as an expectations game win. New Hampshire is doubly important for Romney and McCain. Both are aiming for the anti-Huckabee faction, and the loser of this primary is dead on arrival. The debate between the two of them will be negative, ugly and oftentimes preposterous. As for Guiliani, he needs a big moment to find some traction after a difficult month. The debate will almost certainly turn on immigration and terrorism, and will almost certainly be negative. Really negative.
Really negative.
Have I mentioned negative?
Thursday, January 3, 2008
The Raucous Caucus
Okay, since my blogpartner has done the same, I'll give you some completely uniformed predictions about Iowa. The standard caveats apply. I have no idea what I'm talking about. Nobody else does in Iowa either.
Democrats
I've been pretty confident about calling this for Edwards, but I'm not so sure all of the sudden. The wind seems to have changed a bit and Obama seems to be closing strong. Or maybe he isn't, and Clinton is closing strong. Or maybe Edwards really IS going to take it. It's a crapshoot, and has been for months now. Edwards is the safest bet here, despite his lower national profile. He's basically lived in Iowa the past four years, made huge inroads with the traditional Dem power bases like the unions. The issue with John Edwards is what happens after Iowa. While he's more popular in New Hampshire then four years ago, he still lacks the money and base that his rivals have built. Clinton started with the most name recognition and is still the national frontrunner, but her Iowa machine has struggled. She counts former Governor Tom Vilsack amongst her most vociferous supporters (Tom is practically begging for the VP slot, lets be honest), and she has impressive supports amongst down strata dems, particularly non-college educated women. Obama is the only one here with any real transformative power. If the Des Moines Registrar is correct, and we see an influx of new voters, they will break for Obama. This is a risky strategy though; Iowa is very traditional and the caucus is difficult to break into. This nearly killed Howard Dean in 2004. Obama seems to be doing it the correct way though, focusing on Iowans, disregarding Dean's legions of outsiders. Obama is also helped by strength with “second-choicers”. Dennis Kucinich has already requested that his followers back Obama if he falls below the necessary 15% (and he will), and there are rumors that Biden and Richardson might do the same. Neither man has any particular love for Obama, but both have a better shot at the VP or Secretary of State jobs in an Obama administration than they do a Clinton Redux.
Predictions
1-Obama – 27%
2-Edwards – 24%
3-Clinton – 23%
4-Chris Dodd – 16%
This would be a huge win for Obama, a disappointment for Edwards and a manageable-but-difficult loss for Clinton. The issue with Hilary Clinton is her chilly relations with the press. The MSM might be all to happy to pile on Clinton, and call this a much bigger loss than it actually is. I think Dodd is the most likely lower-tier candidate to break through. He's earned much cred with the base for his fight against the Telecom bill.
Republicans
After soaring into the frontrunner spot, Mike Huckabee has, well, revealed himself to be... a bit of a moron. He's easily the nicest, most friendly Republican around, but damn... I would like a president who has a clue about where Pakistan is. Plus, this goofy “I'm going negative! No I'm not!” hat dance of the past week has damaged his standing with non-evangelical Republicans. There has been a turn away from the Huck the past couple days. Unfortunately for his main rival Mitt Romney, they haven't been turning to him. The Mitt, despite pouring vast amounts of money and time into Iowa, is still stuck in a duel with Huckabee, who's evangelical base won't go anywhere. There has been a surge toward John McCain, despite his spending minimal effort in Iowa. Throw in the expected end of Fred Thompson's campaign, and you have a bit of a mess.
Predictions
1-Huckabee – 29%
2-Romney – 24%
3-McCain – 18%
4-Ron Paul – 10%
The problem with Mike Huckabee is that he's basically a one-note candidate. He's had difficulty pushing past his evangelical base, and he lacks the money and structure to expand his support. Win Iowa, lose Iowa, this is his peak. And yes, I'm well aware this statement is now guaranteed to bite me in the ass. Romney – the most patently insincere man ever considered by either party – is in trouble with a second in Iowa. The massive amount of resources expended will give the press something to harp on, and not a good something for Mitt. The winner in this scenario is McCain, who scores a solid third without much work involved. Couple this with a surge in New Hampshire and he might become the frontrunner again.
Democrats
I've been pretty confident about calling this for Edwards, but I'm not so sure all of the sudden. The wind seems to have changed a bit and Obama seems to be closing strong. Or maybe he isn't, and Clinton is closing strong. Or maybe Edwards really IS going to take it. It's a crapshoot, and has been for months now. Edwards is the safest bet here, despite his lower national profile. He's basically lived in Iowa the past four years, made huge inroads with the traditional Dem power bases like the unions. The issue with John Edwards is what happens after Iowa. While he's more popular in New Hampshire then four years ago, he still lacks the money and base that his rivals have built. Clinton started with the most name recognition and is still the national frontrunner, but her Iowa machine has struggled. She counts former Governor Tom Vilsack amongst her most vociferous supporters (Tom is practically begging for the VP slot, lets be honest), and she has impressive supports amongst down strata dems, particularly non-college educated women. Obama is the only one here with any real transformative power. If the Des Moines Registrar is correct, and we see an influx of new voters, they will break for Obama. This is a risky strategy though; Iowa is very traditional and the caucus is difficult to break into. This nearly killed Howard Dean in 2004. Obama seems to be doing it the correct way though, focusing on Iowans, disregarding Dean's legions of outsiders. Obama is also helped by strength with “second-choicers”. Dennis Kucinich has already requested that his followers back Obama if he falls below the necessary 15% (and he will), and there are rumors that Biden and Richardson might do the same. Neither man has any particular love for Obama, but both have a better shot at the VP or Secretary of State jobs in an Obama administration than they do a Clinton Redux.
Predictions
1-Obama – 27%
2-Edwards – 24%
3-Clinton – 23%
4-Chris Dodd – 16%
This would be a huge win for Obama, a disappointment for Edwards and a manageable-but-difficult loss for Clinton. The issue with Hilary Clinton is her chilly relations with the press. The MSM might be all to happy to pile on Clinton, and call this a much bigger loss than it actually is. I think Dodd is the most likely lower-tier candidate to break through. He's earned much cred with the base for his fight against the Telecom bill.
Republicans
After soaring into the frontrunner spot, Mike Huckabee has, well, revealed himself to be... a bit of a moron. He's easily the nicest, most friendly Republican around, but damn... I would like a president who has a clue about where Pakistan is. Plus, this goofy “I'm going negative! No I'm not!” hat dance of the past week has damaged his standing with non-evangelical Republicans. There has been a turn away from the Huck the past couple days. Unfortunately for his main rival Mitt Romney, they haven't been turning to him. The Mitt, despite pouring vast amounts of money and time into Iowa, is still stuck in a duel with Huckabee, who's evangelical base won't go anywhere. There has been a surge toward John McCain, despite his spending minimal effort in Iowa. Throw in the expected end of Fred Thompson's campaign, and you have a bit of a mess.
Predictions
1-Huckabee – 29%
2-Romney – 24%
3-McCain – 18%
4-Ron Paul – 10%
The problem with Mike Huckabee is that he's basically a one-note candidate. He's had difficulty pushing past his evangelical base, and he lacks the money and structure to expand his support. Win Iowa, lose Iowa, this is his peak. And yes, I'm well aware this statement is now guaranteed to bite me in the ass. Romney – the most patently insincere man ever considered by either party – is in trouble with a second in Iowa. The massive amount of resources expended will give the press something to harp on, and not a good something for Mitt. The winner in this scenario is McCain, who scores a solid third without much work involved. Couple this with a surge in New Hampshire and he might become the frontrunner again.
Sunday, December 30, 2007
Republican Candidates Part 1: The Hopeless
For both parties, the the candidates for 2008 break down the same way. We have the Hopeless, the Very Little Hope, the Maybes, and the Probablys. The Republican Hopeless field is very thin, as Representative Tom Tancredo (R-Hateful White Guys), Senator Sam Brownback (R-Jesus) and former Governor Tommy Thompson (R-Can't Remember) all dropped out before any actual votes were cast.
Who: Representative Duncan Hunter (R-California)
First elected as part of the 1980 Reagan Revolution, Duncan Hunter has served 13 fairly uncontested terms representing three different districts based in San Diego county. He currently serves as Chairman of the House Armed Services Committee. As part of his run for president, Hunter has announced he will not seek reelection to Congress. His son, Duncan D. Hunter has announced his candidacy to replace his father despite being an active duty Marine serving in Afghanistan.
Chances In Iowa: They would seem to be in the purely theoretical area right now, as Hunter routinely polls between 1% - 3% in national polls, and is routinely left off Iowa polls. He has been mentioned (primarily by fellow candidate Mike Huckabee) as a possible future Secretary of Defense. We've done worse
Who: Representative Duncan Hunter (R-California)
First elected as part of the 1980 Reagan Revolution, Duncan Hunter has served 13 fairly uncontested terms representing three different districts based in San Diego county. He currently serves as Chairman of the House Armed Services Committee. As part of his run for president, Hunter has announced he will not seek reelection to Congress. His son, Duncan D. Hunter has announced his candidacy to replace his father despite being an active duty Marine serving in Afghanistan.
Chances In Iowa: They would seem to be in the purely theoretical area right now, as Hunter routinely polls between 1% - 3% in national polls, and is routinely left off Iowa polls. He has been mentioned (primarily by fellow candidate Mike Huckabee) as a possible future Secretary of Defense. We've done worse
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